Idea in Brief

The Conventional Wisdom

Many people believe that the process for achieving breakthrough innovations is chaotic, random, and unmanageable.

The Reality

Breakthroughs can be systematically generated using a process modeled on the principles that drive evolution in nature: variance generation, which creates a variety of life-forms; and selection pressure to select those that can best survive in a given environment.

The Process

Flagship Pioneering, the venture-creation firm behind Moderna Therapeutics, uses such an approach, which it calls emergent discovery. It involves prospecting for ideas in novel spaces; developing speculative conjectures; and relentlessly questioning hypotheses.

On November 30, 2020, Moderna Therapeutics announced that Phase III clinical trials for its messenger RNA vaccine demonstrated 95% protective efficacy against the SARS-CoV-2 virus that had killed almost 1.5 million people worldwide in the previous 10 months. A relative upstart in the Covid-19 vaccine race and a company that few people had heard of before the pandemic, Moderna looked to be an overnight success. But as its CEO, Stéphane Bancel, has noted, that success was 10 years in the making. Far from a one-and-done stroke of luck, the vaccine was the product of a repeatable process that has been used countless times by the company from which Moderna emerged: Flagship Pioneering, a venture-creation firm based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, whose mission is to conceive, make, and commercialize breakthrough innovations in previously unexplored domains of the life sciences.

A version of this article appeared in the September–October 2021 issue of Harvard Business Review.